2020, now what

A little remix of 2019

Demonstrations, contestations

. We have seen protests of the civil society and population against the authorities in power and the political class on all continents this year, it spreaded quiclkly from Asia to South America passing by Africa. Are Democracies in crisis? Is inequality really at the roots of discontents?

Trump impeachment. Knowing that the Senate will not vote for the removal from office of Donald Trump, the procedure of impeachment is certainly to warn the President. Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats yearn to stop power abuse and probably show the public that he should not be trusted. However, his fan base is seeing him as a martyr or victim of assaults by the Dems. Some are not changing their opinion of him nor regret their votes.

What I find odd is that after having been impeached a president can still run for reelection. That does not make sense to me, he might get reelected and it would not have done anything but help him play the victim of a plot. 2020 will surely give us more answers.

France: Internally, tensions and strikes are paralyzing the country since the begining of december regarding pensions reforms. Emmanuel Macron ‘s proposal was contested by workers, the opposition and unions even before it was disclosed fully to the general public on December the 16th by the prime Minister Edouard Philippe.

Outside its border, mid December the death of 13 soldiers in the Sahel conflict with djihadists has mobilized public opinions that ask for the departure of the French from their countries. Populations in Burkina, Mali and Niger have started claiming that France has been taking advantage of the conflict and should leave.

French forces who were at first, welcomed as saviors in 2013 are now seen as occupiers who have extended their stay and must return home. The french president during his travel to Niger made it clear that Authorities asking for the removal of his troops must be careful.

ECO – Another major announecement was the francs CFA(XOF). The currency of western african countries member of ECOWAS was changed to the ECO. The announcement was made during Macrons visit to Cote d’Ivoire. Only 50 percent of the reserve will now remain in France, the parity to the euro stays and the name changes. Oddly, this major annoucement was made unilaterally. What do the other nations think of it? Why choosing Cote d Ivoire to make that announcement? A summit regrouping all ECOWAS country members wasnt the most indicated place for that?

The European Union has faced a lot of criticism and its weaknesses were brought to light. 2020 will be a year of hard work to prove the legitimacy of the organization and innovate in areas that will strenghten and make it more efficient. The changes in government in several member nations might be one of the major issue to tackle : rise of nationalist parties among others.

Brexit. After finding a consensus with Parliament, Boris Johnson won the election and now has all the cards in his hand to focus on Brexit. What will the deal ultimately contained? How will it affect Britains relations with Ireland and Scottland?

Cote D Ivoire. The upcoming presidential election in October 2020 has shaken the country lately.

Who do we need to watch closely this year 2020

Africa

Sahel security issues in the region

Algeria for its permanent state of political instability. Libya as well.

Ethiopia , as Abiy Ahmed had won the Nobel Prize 2019 it would be interesting to watch the evolution of the country after. Senegal, Cote d’Ivoire, and countries that have upcoming elections taking place this year.

Angola, South Africa for the allegations of corruption and mismanagement targetting former presidents and their entourage.

Rwanda and Botswana as their economic progress are continue.

MIDDLE EAST:

Turkey as an actor

The Syrian conflict with the involvement of Turkey now can take a new turn. Quiet instable with Erdogans threats and strategies of scaring European leader as well as his new role in the middle East.

Syria as a territorial issue

IRAN with its on going cold war with the US and Irak

ASIA

The case of India

My last article on Jummu and Kashmir back in September had zoomed in on the issues of India’s grip on the region. In addition to that, the attitudes of Narendra Modi toward the muslim population has been questioned.

Pro refugee measure or anti muslim?

Citizenship Amendment Act law, mid December.

India’s prime Minister Modi, passed a bill allowing minority groups in neighborhing countries who face persecutions a path to Indian citizenship. This possibility excludes muslims, which was qualified of discriminatory once again against the community. Lead mainly by students, protests and marches in college campuses in Delhis and across the countries arose.

In addition to that , are we heading toward the end of India’s secularism?

On the other hand, this act could make sense since the countries around India are mainly muslim which means that they are not the main targets or persecutions.. Other religious groups are, so don’t need protections

What to expect? In 2020, India might be reviving tensions with its Muslim neighbors especially Pakistan. The issue with the bill does not only have an internal impact on the muslim communities, but it also could be seen as a provocation by Indias muslim majority countries neighbors. This path to citizenship offered to any minorities living in their territories can mean support to them and that India is putting itsel as their defender which means against the regime. We could go as far as imagining that in case of rebellion from these groups or insurrection they could count on the support of India.

CHINA Belt and Road Initiative , soft power and growing military power with naval bases. The 5G issues, Huawei and trade war with the US.

In South America, Peru , Venezuela and Bolivia’s political situation might get affected by the protests